Many observers will rightly point to gaps and perceived weaknesses or inadequacies in the the Net Zero strategy. But the general direction is better than we might have expected from a collection of former science deniers, and will need to be defended against sustained attack from groups of Tory backbench reactionaries.
“More joy in heaven over
one sinner that repenteth ….”
The transformation of some of
our political leaders from positive hostility to the findings of climate
science, to at least a grudging acceptance of its realities, or even apparent enthusiasm
for a Green future, is remarkable and welcome.
Let’s not forget, though, the past role
of such as Nigel Lawson and the Global Warming Policy Foundation, or “think
tanks” such as the Institute for Economic Affairs, among many others, in obscuring
the issues, and delaying general acceptance and understanding of the truths that
have been evident to most scientists and intelligent observers for at least twenty
years. This historic guilt can certainly be found in the present Cabinet and there
are many unreconstructed MPs in the governing party who cannot be relied upon
to support net zero policies when the going gets tough, as it will.
Even our PM’s recruitment to
the crusade against greenhouse gas emissions is, he admits, recent. It is
not so long since he himself was
querying the scientific consensus, dabbling in
crackpot theories about sunspots, and disparaging windfarms. The real test will
arrive when he has to confront opposition from the climate sceptics within his
own party. That will start soon.
Defeated on the science, the
sceptics and fossil fuel lobbyists are now regrouping under the banner of climate action as “too
expensive”, and we can expect to hear more from that caucus of MPs – the “net
zero scrutiny group” – as the requirements become more apparent.
Two Cheers.
It’s quite clear, and
not just from the Net Zero paper itself, that the government does grasp the
main priorities for policy, unsurprising since they have the benefit of years
of reports from the Committee on Climate Change. Decarbonising the power
sector, through some combination of nuclear and renewables, is the crucial
first step. The ambition to fully decarbonise by 2035 is welcome. Then comes the switch from internal combustion
(ICE) to electric vehicles (EV). This is now gathering momentum, and not just
in the UK.
But the third major building
block has to be residential heating. This will be slower, more expensive and
more difficult, and will be more contentious while heat pumps remain expensive
and largely unproven. Slower progress in this area is the only realistic
prognosis, and household fears for the cost and efficacy of low carbon heating
are already surfacing. Progress here will necessarily be a marathon not a sprint. This
is the area with the most problems to be resolved and where we are most in need
of more coherent plans.
Economics and
Finance. The Gaps.
The government’s ideological
position emphasises the role of the market. Important though this may be, every
innovation, from heat pumps to small nuclear reactors, will also depend on government
financial commitments. Indeed that commitment is already necessary to ensure sufficient
generating capacity of any kind. A solid regulatory framework is also necessary
to underpin private investment and provide consumer tariffs that allow
consumers to make low carbon choices.
“Public money is essential to
kickstart the net zero journey and turn expensive new technology into
affordable everyday infrastructure.” (The Guardian) There are signs of tension between
the Treasury and other departments over the pace and cost of the government's
net zero plans.
The Net Zero Review does not appear
to have given too much ammunition to government critics by overstating costs of
a net zero transition. The final version of the report, while not presenting a formal
cost-benefit analysis, argues that a well-managed net zero transition can
deliver net economic benefits to the UK. “Global action to mitigate climate
change is essential to long-term UK prosperity," the review states. However
this is unlikely to deter the dedicated opponents of any effective action to
counter or mitigate climate change.
Political battles
ahead
Indeed the “net zero scrutiny”
group are already busy inventing their own facts, as I demonstrated in a recent
post on infrastructure requirements for EVs, and making extreme claims about
the supposed injustices of policies, such as those on EVs, to promote decarbonisation. We should expect a spate of scare stories and misinformation related not just to
EVs but to any new technology that moves us away from fossil fuel. These are
likely to focus on heat pump plans in particular, where there are some real practical
and financial issues, and net zero aspirations are most vulnerable, or may at
least take longer to achieve.
Despite whatever reservations there may
be as to the sufficiency of the government’s plans, however, the immediate
challenge will be to maintain and strengthen the wider public consensus that
recognises the gravity of the climate crisis and the need for action.
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